Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz appear to be locks: Predicting the 2015 baseball Hall of Fame class

AP Photo/File

On a ballot littered with Hall of Fame-worthy candidates, it appears that three players have a strong chance to be elected when the results are announced Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.

Pitchers Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz appear to be locks based on a database of publicly available ballots shared by voters in the newspapers, online or directly with the people who created the database.

Ryan Thibs is leading the effort at www.bbhoftracker.com. The full spreadsheet of available ballots is being tabulated in a Google spreadsheet here.

Johnson, the daunting left-hander who won five Cy Young Awards in his 22 seasons in the majors, was selected on 174 of the 176 ballots collected. Pedro Martinez, the three-time Cy Young winner, is named on 173 ballots. The 176 ballots in the database represents about 30 per cent of the ballots thought to have been mailed out to members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Only those with more than 10 years of membership in the organization are allowed to vote. Last year, there were 571 ballots cast.

John Smoltz, the right-hander who is the only pitcher in history with 200 or more victories and 150 or more saves, done mostly with the Atlanta Braves, has 154 votes and looks as if he will meet the 75 per cent threshold.

Craig Biggio, the long-time Astros second baseman who missed being elected last year by two votes, looks to be on better footing this year. He is named on 147 of the public ballots, good for more than 83 per cent.

AP Photo/FileRandy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz are the leading newcomers on baseball’s Hall of Fame ballot when voting is announced Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2014.

Of the curious facts that have emerge from the database, the most astonishing would be that voters averaged more than 8.5 choices per ballot. One hundred and six of the ballots collected have the maximum 10 names checked off.

Because so many players with Hall of Fame credentials are on this year’s ballot, it looks like players who would normally draw some interest may get dropped after their first year on the ballot. Player who fail to receive votes on at least 5 per cent of ballots are dropped from future ballots.

Former Toronto Blue Jays slugger Carlos Delgado has only three votes in the database, which seems ridiculously low for a player who hit 473 home runs. Delgado produced a total WAR of 44.3 in his career (34.5 in his seven-year for a score of 39.4 in baseball writer Jay Jaffe’s JAWS scale. A JAWS score of 50 is about the bottom threshold for a first baseman, but Delgado’s career is worthy of being under consideration for more than one year.

AP Photo/Charles Krupa
AP Photo/Charles KrupaPedro Martinez, the three-time Cy Young winner, is named on 173 ballots.

With 176 ballots recorded as of midnight ET, these are the vote percentages. A player has to be selected on 75% of ballots to be elected to the Hall of Fame.

Player Votes Pct.
Randy Johnson 174 98.86%
Pedro Martinez 173 98.30%
John Smoltz 154 87.50%
Craig Biggio 147 83.52%
Mike Piazza 134 76.14%
Tim Raines 115 65.34%
Jeff Bagwell 110 62.50%
Curt Schilling 90 51.14%
Barry Bonds 78 44.32%
Roger Clemens 78 44.32%
Mike Mussina 62 35.23%
Edgar Martinez 48 27.27%
Alan Trammell 42 23.86%
Lee Smith 35 19.89%
Fred McGriff 26 14.77%
Jeff Kent 23 13.07%
Gary Sheffield 16 9.09%
Mark McGwire 13 7.39%
Larry Walker 13 7.39%
Sammy Sosa 9 5.11%
Don Mattingly 8 4.55%
Carlos Delgado 3 1.70%
Nomar Garciaparra 3 1.70%

Source:: National Post


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