TORONTO — Causation can be a tricky thing.
For example: Through Nov. 28, when DeMar DeRozan injured his groin against the Dallas Mavericks, the Toronto Raptors ranked ninth in points allowed per possession. Following that, from Nov. 29 through Tuesday’s play, the Raptors ranked 28th in points allowed per possession, dropping them to 22nd for the year.
Therefore, DeRozan’s injury seems to have caused the Raptors’ defensive downfall. Ta da.
While DeRozan’s injury is likely a contributing factor to the Raptors’ problems on defence, it is far from a catch-all explanation.
“I think … it’s more of the style of play offensively,” Raptors coach Dwane Casey said on Wednesday. “We’re more up-and-down, free-flowing, random basketball, flow basketball, than we were with (DeRozan healthy). He probably wouldn’t admit this, but we do slow it down to get it to him in the post. That helps us rest on offence, so to speak. It slows the pace down.
It does give our defence a chance to get back. He gets to the foul line. The game stops. You’re able to get your defence set. It’s a multitude of things. It’s no one person, no one problem, one guy defensively. It’s a systemic style of play more so than one guy.”
The Raptors will have to play without DeRozan for a while longer. Although it was reported by some outlets that he would return on Thursday against Charlotte, DeRozan said on Wednesday that he wants to participate in a few more practices in order to improve his conditioning and strength before he returns, and the team’s doctors have agreed. A return next week — against Detroit on Monday, Philadelphia on Wednesday or Atlanta on Friday — is the new target.
Casey’s concerns about pace seem to be a bit misplaced. Before DeRozan’s injury, the Raptors averaged 96.7 possessions per game, eighth in the league, per the NBA’s website. They have averaged 95.1 possessions per game after the injury, ranking them 21st. So, the Raptors have, in fact, slowed down without DeRozan in the lineup. Casey’s point about free throws is well taken, as the Raptors have taken seven fewer free throws per game without DeRozan in the lineup. A defence tends to be better when it can be set, and a trip to the free-throw line on offence guarantees their defence can do just that.
More than that, the trickle-down effect caused by DeRozan’s injury has likely been harmful. Lou Williams, Terrence Ross, James Johnson and Greivis Vasquez are all playing more than four minutes more per game without DeRozan than they were before the injury, while Kyle Lowry’s offensive burden has increased to the point where the Raptors are looking to rest him when possible.
DeRozan might have provided the simplest explanation.
“I’ve been playing under Case for the last four or five years, whatever it’s been, so I understand the system and I understand the way he wants to play defensively — spots and positions and rotations,” DeRozan said. “So (there are) a lot of little things that we’re probably missing that I’m normally out there to really understand. From (helping dislodge a big man on the pick-and-roll) to weak side help, whatever it may be, I think that kind of goes out the way with me not being there because I probably have the most experience under Case’s defence. So with me being out, I think that kind of affected it. for sure. Obviously, the numbers don’t lie.”
With that in mind, it is hard to believe that DeRozan’s absence explains the slippage entirely. Games on the road against Golden State, Phoenix and Chicago, the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-best offensive teams, respectively, were three of the worst defensive performances of the season. There is some element of the Raptors’ schedule simply evening out while DeRozan was out of the lineup, and that they would have been ill equipped to stop those teams even if he were playing. Beyond that, players such as Williams, Vasquez and Ross have never been known as excellent defensive players, while Jonas Valanciunas is still error-prone in the middle of it all.
“I don’t know if our personnel is going to allow us to be a defensive juggernaut, a stopping team,” Casey said last week. “But we can be better defensively as far as our schemes are concerned, and our rotations and pick-and-roll defence. I think we’ll be better than that with time.”
That gets to the strangest thing about this all: DeRozan’s individual defence has been criticized throughout his career. It is bizarre that his absence would single-handedly destroy the Raptors’ defensive integrity. It is likely that DeRozan’s absence has impacted the team’s ability to stop their opposition. They have problems that go well beyond him, too.
Source:: canada.com
