The key to understanding the Julian Fantino mini-shuffle, an oddly tentative half-firing, is simply this: From a media standpoint, the erstwhile veterans affairs minister is gone. Appropriately enough for a man whose new brief comprises data security and foreign intelligence, he will be a ghost. Do not expect to see or hear much from this communications-challenged former cop, his continuing presence at the cabinet table notwithstanding, between now and the 2015 election.
Why was Fantino turfed from Veterans Affairs?
First let’s dispense with the absurd fiction that this was not a demotion. Of course it was. Fantino’s tenure at Veterans Affairs was a train wreck, and that is why he is no longer the minister. Just as occurred during his prior stints at International Co-operation and Defence (in an associate role), he hurtled from one self-imposed crisis to the next, in the process stepping all over the government’s message.
In virtually every instance Fantino’s problems stemmed from, to quote the warden in 1967’s Cool Hand Luke, “a failure to communicate.” The MP from Vaughan’s combative tactlessness were not crippling during his long police career, perhaps because one expects some of that in a police chief. Not so from a politician, and particularly not when dealing with veterans, who deserve to be treated with visible respect by all public officials, full stop.
Why now, not later?
If it were done when t’is done, then t’were well it were done quickly, said Macbeth. Right. Once it became clear that Fantino had lost too much standing with veterans to recover, it made sense for Prime Minister Stephen Harper to do the deed before the House of Commons resumed sitting in February.
The several-week buffer provides time for incoming Veterans Affairs Minister Erin O’Toole, a former officer in the Royal Canadian Air Force, to get his ducks in a row, before facing the tender mercies of the opposition, in particular opposition leader Tom Mulcair, at full throttle. They will be looking to make O’Toole’s life miserable, even before he begins.
Also, a federal budget is expected in February. Conservatives expect there will be new money for veterans, an olive branch of sorts. The PM appears to have judged, correctly, that this could never fly with Fantino as salesman, but might have a chance with the more personable O’Toole on point.
Finally, the Conservative caucus had tired of Fantino and his fracases dominating media coverage of the government. No minister can long survive once his colleagues conclude he has become a millstone around all their necks. Harper has not survived nearly a decade as PM, without facing a single leadership challenge, by being deaf to the concerns of his caucus.
Why was Fantino moved down, not out?
Stephen Harper is famously inscrutable. But the best guess is that he feels some personal loyalty to Fantino, believes he can still be helpful to the government, and is reluctant to be seen to ditch a minister under opposition and media pressure.
In closed meetings, I am told, Fantino still speaks with some authority, based on his decades of experience as a police chief. His area of expertise is deemed to be security: Hence, the new duties as an associate minister of national defence, dealing with data security and foreign espionage. In this role, supporting Minister Rob Nicholson, Fantino can operate more or less out of the public eye. He needn’t be in the full glare of the cameras, dealing with aggrieved citizens and their spouses. There will be far fewer opportunities – this has to be the hope – for him to get himself in trouble. Arctic sovereignty, the third part of Fantino’s new brief, is the PM’s own special area of interest and thus, a wash.
There has been speculation within Tory circles that Fantino may not run in the next election – in which case keeping him in cabinet now, even nominally, averts the bad blood and internal controversy that could accrue to his successor in Vaughan, in the event of an outright firing or resignation.
What are the implications for veterans’ programs?
Re-opening of the nine shuttered veterans’ centres, as the opposition has demanded, is unlikely. That ship has sailed and the machinery of government does not grind well in reverse. But the installation of a fresh face ahead of the budget does suggest there will be new measures for veterans and that the PM believes they are important to his party’s re-election hopes. We can expect any new money will revolve around improving veterans’ health benefits, which drew critical scrutiny in a recent auditor general’s report, and pensions.
Does this increase the likelihood of an early election?
No. Though the PM can always reverse himself based on circumstance, indications are that he intends to continue through the spring and summer and take the country to the polls in the fall, as he has promised to do.
Twitter.com/mdentandt
Source:: canada.com
